and Belgium and lower in countries such as Cyprus or Faroe Islands (~0.15%, even case fatality rate is very low), Finland (~0.15%) and Iceland (~0.3%)… Differences exist also within a country for example within the USA, IFR differs markedly in disadvantaged New Orleans districts versus affluent Silicon Valley areas. Within Europe, IFR estimates were probably substantially higher in the first wave in countries like Spain, U.K. Overall average IFR may be ~0.3%- 0.4% in Europe and the Americas (~0.2% among community-dwelling non-institutionalised people) and ~0.05% in Africa and Asia (excluding Wuhan). Ioannidis writes:Įven correcting inappropriate exclusions/inclusion of studies, errors and seroreversion, IFR still varies substantially across continents and countries. However, the consistency of the values across different contexts suggests this is the right ballpark, at least for those with no specific immunity to the virus and pre-Omicron. This rate, he says, varies between and within countries and over time, and some of that variation will be due to poor treatment protocols. John Ioannidis has estimated from antibody surveys to have an infection fatality rate (IFR) of around 0.3-0.4% in Europe and the Americas.
Did i click on a virus driver#
In other words, the main driver of Covid deaths appears, in fact, to be COVID-19, a disease caused by a virus which Dr. from bank holidays – the sharp dips), nonetheless the regional patterns are so tight they leave no room to think the picture by date of occurrence would be vastly different.
Did i click on a virus registration#
While the data below are by registration date, which creates artificial synchronicity (e.g. However, data from the ONS, displayed below, suggest that flu deaths typically surge across the country simultaneously, so this is not unusual or unexpected. One suggestion is that the simultaneous surge of deaths across the regions of England in March 2020 is indicative of a cause other than an infectious virus.
Did i click on a virus plus#
However, over time the number of excess deaths tended to converge, putting a limit on how much of the variation can be pinned on things specific to localities or time periods, such as poor treatment protocols early on in the north-eastern United States.īelow is the picture in the U.S. at the end of May 2020 – a real patchwork, though with clear concentrations of excess deaths around New York and around Michigan, Illinois and Indiana, plus Louisiana and one or two other states. states, just as there was in different countries, for example, between Eastern and Western Europe. Early on there was a high level of variation in how many deaths occurred in different U.S. This is not an adequate explanation for the patterns of deaths we see. It’s clearly not the case that medics in Florida started going big on the ventilators again just as Delta appeared, and then stopped using them again afterwards.
But Florida had not had a large wave the previous winter (despite famously ending its statewide restrictions in autumn 2020). After all, many states including Florida had deadly waves during summer 2021 as the Delta variant surged. chart above) is a powerful objection to the idea that what was causing most of the deaths was anything peculiar about the treatments used in, say, New York in March 2020. The fact that deadly Covid outbreaks kept coming over the ensuing months and years (see the U.S.
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